McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023

The McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023 is available for download at no charge. Visit https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech to download your copy.

Reading the McKinsey report is so worth your time, for so many reasons. But because the overarching theme of the Desulfurization Blog (www.desulf.blogspot.com ) is to help you enhance your online research effectiveness, I want to focus on the authors’ description of the research methodology they used to prepare the report.

You might find it a useful design for your own investigations.

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McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023
Research methodology
To assess the development of each technology trend, our team collected data on five tangible measures of activity: search engine queries, news publications, patents, research publications, and investment. For each measure, we used a defined set of data sources to find occurrences of keywords associated with each of the 15 trends, screened those occurrences for valid mentions of activity, and indexed the resulting numbers of mentions on a 0–1 scoring scale that is relative to the trends studied. The innovation score combines the patents and research scores; the interest score combines the news and search scores. (While we recognize that an interest score can be inflated by deliberate efforts to stimulate news and search activity, we believe that each score fairly reflects the extent of discussion and debate about a given trend.) Investment measures the flows of funding from the capital markets into companies linked with the trend. Data sources for the scores include the following:
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Patents. Data on patent filings are sourced from Google Patents.
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Research. Data on research publications are sourced from the Lens (www.lens.org ).
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News. Data on news publications are sourced from Factiva.
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Searches. Data on search engine queries are sourced from Google Trends.
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Investment. Data on private-market and public-market capital raises are sourced from PitchBook.
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Talent demand. Number of job postings is sourced from McKinsey’s proprietary Organizational Data Platform, which stores licensed, de-identified data on professional profiles and job postings. Data is drawn primarily from English-speaking countries.

In addition, we updated the selection and definition of trends from last year’s study to reflect the evolution of technology trends:
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The generative-AI trend was added since last year’s study.
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We adjusted the definitions of electrification and renewables (previously called future of clean energy) and climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables (previously called future of sustainable consumption).
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Data sources were updated. This year, we included only closed deals in PitchBook
data, which revised downward the investment numbers for 2018–22. For future of
space technologies investments, we used research from McKinsey’s Aerospace &
Defense Practice.
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SUGGESTION: Consider adapting the McKinsey research methodology to enhance your particular research objectives. And, of course, you might want to contact McKinsey directly to help with that research.

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Google® Better!
Jean Steinhardt served as Librarian, Aramco Americas (https://americas.aramco.com/ ), Engineering Division, for 13 years. He now heads Jean Steinhardt Consulting LLC, producing the same high quality research that he performed for Aramco.

Follow Jean’s blog at: http://desulf.blogspot.com/ for continuing tips on effective online research
Email Jean at jstoneheart@gmail.com with questions on research, training, or anything else

Breakthrough Alert: MIT Technology Review 35 Innovators Under 35

“In finance, other people’s money, or OPM, is a slang term that refers to financial leverage” – Strategic CFO

MIT’s 35 Innovators Under 35 list for 2023 has hit the digital shelves. This is exciting news for anyone interested in discovering useful new technologies as they emerge from the fevered brains of their creators.

MIT’s free newsletter The Download offers a sneak preview of the list. For full access, a subscription to the MIT Technology Review is well worth the price.

Using OPM – Other People’s Money – is a way to achieve financial goals that might be difficult to achieve using one’s own resources. As long as we are dealing in good faith, and are successful, everybody wins. As Dolly Parton famously sang, “Ain’t nothing dirty going on.”

By the same token, we can use OPR – Other People’s Research – to achieve goals we could not reach on our own. As long as we don’t claim that we performed the research, and provide proper attribution, everybody wins.

In that spirit, here is a link to The Download’s preview of the list …

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MIT Technology Review 35 Innovators Under 35
Source:
https://www.technologyreview.com/supertopic/2023-mit-technology-reviews-innovators-under-35/?truid=36d06cee295f2d97fb732a7572a23410&utm_source=the_download&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the_download.unpaid.engagement&utm_term=&utm_content=09-12-2023&mc_cid=f8a4a36418&mc_eid=76363cef0a
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The Spark, another free MIT newsletter, highlights a few of the innovators on the 2023 list …

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The Spark
By Casey Crownhart • 09.13.23
Hello hello, welcome back to The Spark!
A lot of bright minds are working on solutions to climate change. You can find some of them in the latest edition of our annual 35 Innovators Under 35 list, which was just published yesterday.
We’ve highlighted a lot of innovators over the years, usually before they become household names. Sergey Brin of Google was on the list in 2002. JB Straubel was honored in 2008 when he was CTO of Tesla. That year also saw Andrew Ng make the list (he’s one of the biggest names in AI right now, and he came back this year to write an intro essay, which I highly recommend.)
As I looked through the folks who made the list in the climate and energy category in 2023, I noticed a few trends. In particular, there was a concentration in two areas I think a lot about: batteries and fuels. So let’s take a closer look at a few of this year’s innovators and consider what their work could mean for the future of climate action.
Charging up
As you probably know if you’re a frequent reader here, I see batteries as one of the most crucial pieces of technology in the fight to address climate change. Not only are powerful, long-lasting batteries crucial to electrifying vehicles and other forms of transportation, but they are expected to play a growing role on the grid, storing energy from intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar for when it’s most needed.
Batteries have come a long way in recent years, and prices have plummeted. (They just fell to under $100 per kilowatt-hour for the first time in two years, continuing a downward trend that’s lasted for a decade.)
However, there’s huge potential for more progress, especially in battery materials. And two innovators on this year’s list are looking to new materials to help make batteries more useful in more ways.
Tongchao Liu of Argonne National Lab is working on making batteries last longer.
Over time, batteries tend to wear out as they charge and discharge. Liu developed a diagnostic system to determine where that failure takes place and identified part of the battery called the cathode as the major culprit. He and his team then came up with an alternative cathode material based on perovskites. (You may have heard of perovskites in the context of solar cells.) In lab tests, battery lifetimes tripled with the new material.
David Mackanic of Anthro Energy is developing bendy batteries, which could power things like wearable devices as well as EVs.
One of the most crucial parts of a battery is the electrolyte, the material that charge moves through in a cell. Many batteries, including the lithium-ion cells that power EVs and laptops today, use a flammable liquid as an electrolyte. But Mackanic and his team invented a flexible polymer electrolyte, which can bend without compromising battery performance.
It’s not easy to bring new battery inventions to the market, and there’s a long path ahead for both of these projects, but I’ll definitely be watching to see how they turn out.
Fueling up
Another trend I noticed among the innovators this year was a focus on fuels. Like batteries, fuels store energy, but they tend to pack more energy into a smaller space than many batteries can, making them easier to transport. So fuels could be the best solution on the table for industries like aviation and shipping.
Peter Godart of Found Energy has a vision of using aluminum as a fuel. He developed a process to pull apart the metal with water, producing both heat and hydrogen that can be used as energy sources. His startup’s initial plans are to work with aluminum producers to help them use scrap to partially power aluminum recycling.
Stafford Sheehan of Air Company developed a process to convert carbon dioxide into alcohol, which can then be used to make jet fuel. The company has a deal with the US military and hopes to sell its fuel more widely in the next few years.
Young Suk Jo of Amogy wants to power ships using ammonia. The chemical is typically used in fertilizer, but it could also be used as a handy way to store hydrogen, a leading clean fuel. Jo and Amogy invented a reactor that can pull ammonia apart into nitrogen and hydrogen that can be used onboard vehicles. The company has tested its system in a drone, a tractor, and a semi-truck and plans to power a tugboat using ammonia later this year.
You might remember Young Suk Jo from an earlier edition of the newsletter—I spoke with him in June, when I visited Amogy’s headquarters in Brooklyn. I also wrote a longer profile of him that was just published yesterday, which you can read here.
A lot of innovators are working on batteries and fuels, but even these fields are a small piece of climate action overall. There are also folks on the list who are tackling demand response on the grid, satellites for climate monitoring, and materials for carbon capture, not to mention all the people in the biotechnology, AI, robotics, and computing categories. Be sure to check out the full list of 35 Innovators Under 35 to get all the details.
Thermal battery startup Antora just flipped on its first commercial-scale system. The company’s technology could help power industrial plants that require high heat and constant power. (Bloomberg)
There’s lots of big news in steel this week. H2 Green Steel raised $1.6 billion in equity to help build its planned green steel plant in Sweden. (Canary Media) And Boston Metal, a startup working to electrify production of one of the world’s most used and most polluting materials, raised a $262 million funding round. (Bloomberg)
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Google® Better!
Jean Steinhardt served as Librarian, Aramco Americas (https://americas.aramco.com/ ), Engineering Division, for 13 years. He now heads Jean Steinhardt Consulting LLC, producing the same high quality research that he performed for Aramco.

Follow Jean’s blog at: http://desulf.blogspot.com/ for continuing tips on effective online research
Email Jean at jstoneheart@gmail.com with questions on research, training, or anything else

10 Breakthrough Technologies 2023

Each year, according to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Technology_Review ), MIT Technology Review publishes three lists …

• Innovators Under 35 (formerly TR35)
• 10 Breakthrough Technologies
• 50 Smartest Companies

All three lists are valuable to anyone interested in identifying promising start-ups. This year’s list of the top 10 Breakthrough Technologies came out a few weeks ago.

The three technologies that caught my eye are highlighted below.

But, first, here is a three-point strategy you might want to consider going forward …

• Look at the 10 Breakthrough Technologies list
• Subscribe to MIT Technology Review. This will give you easy access to each of the annual lists (https://www.technologyreview.com/ )
• Once you subscribe, take the time to read, or at least to browse, each bimonthly issue.

Energy is of particular interest to me. As such, here are the three technologies that stood out to me. Some of the firms of interest that are listed are …

SiFive
https://www.sifive.com
SiFive is a fabless semiconductor company and provider of commercial RISC-V processor IP and silicon chips based on the RISC-V instruction set architecture. SiFive's products include cores, SoCs, IPs, and development boards. SiFive is the first company to produce a chip that implements the RISC-V ISA. Wikipedia

SemiFive
https://semifive.com
SEMIFIVE, hand in hand with global innovation leaders, is growing as a leading partner for future SoC designs, and thereby becoming: The New Global Hub of Custom Silicon. Founded in Seoul in 2018, SEMIFIVE is basing its foundation on Korea’s semiconductor design competency that was amassed for more than 20 years.

BYD
https://www.byd.com
Founded in 1995, BYD started out as a battery maker and entered the automobile business in 2003. https://asia.nikkei.com
("Build Your Dreams" Chinese: 比亚迪股份有限公司) is a publicly listed Chinese conglomerate manufacturing company headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China. It was founded by Wang Chuanfu in February 1995. The company has two major subsidiaries, BYD Automobile and BYD Electronic. https://en.wikipedia.org
BYD is a major Chinese automaker based in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. It sells vehicles under the BYD brand.

Redwood Materials
https://www.redwoodmaterials.com
Redwood Materials, Inc. is an American company headquartered in Carson City, Nevada. The company aims to recycle lithium-ion batteries and produce battery materials for electromobility and electrical storage systems. Redwood Materials was reported to have a valuation of about $3.7 billion as of July 2021. Wikipedia

Li-Cycle
https://li-cycle.com
Li-Cycle, which became a publicly traded company in 2021, said it had more than 100 battery suppliers, including a partnership with Ultium Cells, a joint venture between General Motors and the South Korean battery company LG Energy Solution. Li-Cycle also has strategic partnerships with the mining giant Glencore and Koch Industries, the privately held conglomerate with extensive fossil fuel operations. Together, those two businesses have invested $300 million in Li-Cycle. (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/business/energy-environment/battery-recycling-electric-vehicles.html)

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A FEW OF THE MIT TOP 10 TECHNOLOGIES 2023

Computing
A chip design that changes everything: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2023

Computer chip designs are expensive and hard to license. That’s all about to change thanks to the popular open standard known as RISC-V.
By Sophia Chenarchive page
January 9, 2023

WHO
RISC-V International, Intel, SiFive, SemiFive, China RISC-V Industry Alliance

WHEN
Now
Ever wonder how your smartphone connects to your Bluetooth speaker, given they were made by different companies? Well, Bluetooth is an open standard, meaning its design specifications, such as the required frequency and its data encoding protocols, are publicly available. Software and hardware based on open standards—Ethernet, Wi-Fi, PDF—have become household names.

Now an open standard known as RISC-V (pronounced “risk five”) could change how companies create computer chips. Chip companies such as Intel and Arm have long kept their blueprints proprietary. Customers would buy off-the-shelf chips, which may have had capabilities irrelevant to their product, or pay more for a custom design. Since RISC-V is an open standard, anyone can use it to design a chip, free of charge.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/09/1064876/riscv-computer-chips-10-breakthough-technologies-2023/

TIP: Google: RISC-V International

RISC-V is an open standard Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) enabling a new era of processor innovation through open collaboration
RISC-V enables the community to share technical investment, contribute to the strategic future, create more rapidly, enjoy unprecedented design freedom, and substantially reduce the cost of innovation.

RISC-V International is the global non-profit home of the open standard RISC-V Instruction Set Architecture (ISA), related specifications, and stakeholder community

More than 3,100 RISC-V members across 70 countries contribute and collaborate to define RISC-V open specifications as well as convene and govern related technical, industry, domain, and special interest groups.

RISC-V combines a modular technical approach with an open, royalty-free ISA — meaning that anyone, anywhere can benefit from the IP contributed and produced by RISC-V. As a non-profit, RISC-V does not maintain any commercial interest in products or services. As an open standard, anyone may leverage RISC-V as a building block in their open or proprietary solutions and services.

Open source and global standards have a long history of success because they have a license framework that ensures anyone, anywhere can have ongoing access to them.
https://riscv.org/
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Climate change
The inevitable EV: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2023

Electric vehicles have been available for decades. Now they’ve finally become mainstream.
By James Temple
January 9, 20

WHO
BYD, Hyundai, Tesla, Volkswagen

WHEN
Now
Electric vehicles are transforming the auto industry.

While sales have slowly ticked up for years, they’re now soaring. The emissions-free cars and trucks will likely account for 13% of all new auto sales globally in 2022, up from 4% just two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency. They’re on track to make up about 30% of those sales by the end of this decade.

A mix of forces has propelled the vehicles from a niche choice to a mainstream option.

Governments have enacted policies compelling automakers to retool and incentivizing consumers to make the switch. Notably, California and New York will require all new cars, trucks, and SUVs to be zero-emissions by 2035, and the EU had nearly finalized a similar rule at press time.

Auto companies, in turn, are setting up supply chains, building manufacturing capacity, and releasing more models with better performance, across price points and product types.

The Hongguang Mini, a tiny car that starts a little below $5,000, has become the best-selling electric vehicle in the world, reinforcing China’s dominance as the largest manufacturer of EVs.

A growing line-up of two- and three-wheelers from Hero Electric, Ather, and other companies helped EV sales triple in India over the last year (though the total number is still only around 430,000). And models ranging in size and price from the Chevy Bolt to the Ford F-150 Lightning are bringing more Americans into the electric fold.

There are still big challenges ahead. Most of the vehicles must become cheaper. Charging options need to be more convenient. Clean electricity generation will have to increase dramatically to accommodate the surge in vehicle charging. And it will be a massive undertaking to make enough batteries. But it’s now clear that the heyday of the gas-guzzler is dimming.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/09/1064889/the-inevitable-ev-10-breakthrough-technologies-2023/
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Battery recycling
Recycling is vital to prevent today’s growing mountains of discarded batteries from ending up in landfills, and it could also provide a badly needed source of metals for powering tomorrow’s EVs. Companies are building facilities that will reclaim lithium, nickel, and cobalt and feed these metals back to lithium-ion battery manufacturers, helping reduce the cost.

TIP: Google: ev battery recycling
!!!!!!!
Race to the Future: Electric Cars Are Taking Off, but When Will Battery Recycling Follow?

Many companies and investors are eager to recycle batteries, but it could take a decade or more before enough used lithium-ion batteries become available.
New York Times [EXCERPTS]
By Niraj Chokshi and Kellen Browning
Dec. 21, 2022
Niraj Chokshi and Kellen Browning reported this story from Reno, Nev. Chokshi also traveled to Rochester, N.Y., and Browning to Adelanto, Calif.

Sales of electric cars and trucks are taking off, and the auto and battery industries are investing billions of dollars to upgrade and build factories. These cars could help address climate change, but batteries pose their own problems. Raw materials can be hard to mine, are often found in countries with poor human rights records and require processing that leaves behind noxious waste.
Fortunately, those battery ingredients are also highly reusable. And now a race is on to collect and recycle used lithium-ion batteries. Venture capitalists, automakers and energy companies are pouring money into dozens of start-up recycling companies in North America and Europe.

Among companies recycling batteries, Redwood stands out. The company was founded by J.B. Straubel, a former top Tesla executive, and has raised more than $1 billion from investors, it said. Redwood sees itself primarily as a producer of battery materials — made from recovered or mined metals — and has established recycling partnerships with Ford Motor, Toyota, Volkswagen and Volvo. Redwood also recycles scrap from a battery plant run by Panasonic and Tesla, near Reno, Nev.

It could take many years for recycling to become a thriving industry in the United States. Relatively few electric vehicles are on the road, and most are new. Smartphones, laptops and other electronics also contain lithium-ion batteries, but they are difficult to collect and there are not enough to meet the growing needs of the auto industry.

But lawmakers and environmental groups want recycling to take off quickly to cut carbon emissions, protect the nation from an overreliance on foreign producers and promote the safe disposal of batteries.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/business/energy-environment/battery-recycling-electric-vehicles.html

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Google® Better!
Jean Steinhardt served as Librarian, Aramco Services, Engineering Division, for 13 years. He now heads Jean Steinhardt Consulting LLC, producing the same high quality research that he performed for Aramco.

Follow Jean’s blog at: http://desulf.blogspot.com/ for continuing tips on effective online research
Email Jean at research@jeansteinhardtconsulting.com with questions on research, training, or anything else
Visit Jean’s Web site at http://www.jeansteinhardtconsulting.com/ to see examples of the services we can provide