Is Your vision 20/20 - or 20/30?

Saudi Vision 2030 is a big deal … a very big deal.

To understand it, you should take a few minutes to read articles – both pro and con - that have been written about it.

TIP: Take time to read the entire text of these articles. Vision 2030 is still a work in progress, and implications of the final version will be profound.

Here is a starter list of informative articles, including the original Vision 2030, as well as the important National Transformation Program 2020.

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The Saudi Arabian Economy: Policies, Achievements, and Challenges
By Mohamed A. Ramady
Extensive preview, including much of chapter 2, of a previous book by Ramaday, can be viewed on Google Books ...
https://books.google.com/books?id=U7ae3Y2idIkC&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22Saudi+Aramco+2030%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjX6dW2va_XAhUG8CYKHW6xB2wQ6AEILTAB#v=onepage&q&f=false ]
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The fate of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 rests on the Aramco IPO
 Zainab Calcuttawala, OilPrice.com
Aug. 23, 2017, 8:15 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-aramco-ipo-and-vision-2030-2017-8
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Saudi Vision 2030
http://vision2030.gov.sa/en/media-center
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Vision 2030 on center stage
WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S., June 22, 2016
The Kingdom’s Vision 2030 and 2020 National Transformation Program took center stage during a visit this week to the United States by HRH Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Muhammad ibn Salman ibn ‘Abd al-’Aziz Al Saud.
http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home/news-media/news/vision-2030-on-center-stage.html
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The Saudi Aramco IPO is a game-changer for the Saudi economy
Samantha Gross
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
In January 2016, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman stunned the world by announcing what could be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history. The Saudi government intends to offer shares representing about 5 percent of Saudi Aramco, which has been under government control since it was nationalized in the 1970s. With reserves 10 times larger than those of ExxonMobil, Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer and could have a market value as high as $2 trillion. The government aims for the IPO to take place in late 2018.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/06/06/the-saudi-aramco-ipo-is-a-game-changer-for-the-saudi-economy/
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Financial Times, October 26, 2017
Paul Hodges and David Hughes
U-turn to revive quotas is not working and fails to address changing future of oil
Saudi Arabia’s move into recession comes at an unfortunate time for its new crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (known to all as MbS).
Unemployment is continuing to rise, threatening the social contract. In foreign affairs, the war in Yemen and the dispute with Qatar appear to be in stalemate. And then there is the vexed issue of King Salman’s ill health, and the question of who succeeds him.
https://www.ft.com/content/6f27998a-ba3d-11e7-9bfb-4a9c83ffa852
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Forbes
Oct 29, 2017
Visions And Misperceptions On The Road To An Aramco IPO
Guest post written by
Ali Shihabi
Shihabi is executive director of The Arabia Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
Christopher Helman Christopher Helman , Forbes Staff
There are plenty of reasons that a Chinese private placement in Aramco might make more sense than an IPO.
Since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MBS) 2016 announcement of Saudi Vision 2030, commentators and analysts have maligned the plan’s “unrealistic” goals and time lines. Their negative assessment is based on a fundamental misreading of Vision 2030 as a foreordained business plan cast in stone, rather than a preliminary road map designed to send a powerful signal of the Saudi leadership’s clear intent to rigorously pursue comprehensive social and economic reform. Nowhere has this fundamental misunderstanding been more apparent than in Western media’s treatment of the Aramco IPO, which, contrary to prevailing sentiment, has clear and viable alternatives to a public listing on the New York or London exchanges.
Senior Editor Chris Helman is based in Houston, Texas. Contact him on Twitter @chrishelman.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2017/10/29/visions-and-misperceptions-on-the-road-to-an-aramco-ipo/#622c9aae2a75
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The Economist
Saudi Arabia’s reforms: Building on sand: The kingdom’s young reformers are meeting old obstacles
Nov 5th 2016
RIYADH
FOR evidence that a new era has dawned in Saudi Arabia, look no further than the cabinet. Out are the stodgy old princes; in are the (relatively) youthful reformers. Since assuming the throne last year, King Salman has installed a new generation of ministers closely aligned with his son, 31-year-old Muhammad bin Salman, the deputy crown prince. On October 31st the king completed the reshuffle by replacing Ibrahim al-Assaf, the old finance minister (in place for the past 20 years), with Muhammad al-Jadaan, head of the country’s Capital Markets Authority.
The change comes as Prince Muhammad tries to implement an ambitious set of reforms, known as “Vision 2030”, aimed at weaning the kingdom off oil by curbing public spending, diversifying the economy and attracting foreign investment. The kingdom’s new leaders, many of whom are former businessmen or bankers, are expected to boost that effort. Mr Jadaan, for his part, oversaw the cautious opening of the Saudi stockmarket to big foreign investors last year.
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21709548-kingdoms-young-reformers-are-meeting-old-obstacles-building-sand
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Washington Post
Saudi Arabia, a kingdom built on oil, plans a future beyond it
By Steven Mufson April 21, 2017
The 31-year-old deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, son of the king, has set out to reinvent the Saudi economy by the year 2030. His plan, called Vision 2030, would foster new private businesses, improve education and trim the budget deficit by cutting subsidies and introducing a 5 percent value-added tax. Most startling of all: The government has proposed selling off a chunk of its crown jewel, the state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/saudi-arabia-a-kingdom-built-on-oil-plans-a-future-beyond-it/2017/04/21/6574d2ee-251a-11e7-bb9d-8cd6118e1409_story.html
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Eaton & Van Winkle LLC
Saudi Vision 2030: Opportunities and Challenges
September 16, 2016
Saudi Arabia has recently adopted two ambitious development and transformation programs, Saudi Vision 2030 and the National Transformation Program) to diversify the economy away form an overreliance on  crude oil exports. These changes will be accompanied by a number of business opportunities including more global investments and tech transfer and JV deals with foreign companies.
Introduction
Saudi Arabia has begun a transformation from an economy dominated by public sector spending and oil export revenues to a diversified economy, where the private sector will take over as the main engine of economic growth.
The goals and objectives are set forth in two documents recently approved by the Saudi Government, namely Saudi Vision 2030 (Vision 2030) and the National Transformation Program 2020 (NTP). This ambitious transformation will bring with it challenges and opportunities in the coming years.
http://www.evw.com/news/saudi-vision-2030/
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Full text of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
The Saudi cabinet has endorsed a sweeping set of programs and reforms to be implemented by 2030.
Saudi Gazette, RiyadhTuesday, 26 April 2016
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2016/04/26/Full-text-of-Saudi-Arabia-s-Vision-2030.html
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National Transformation Program 2020
vision2030.gov.sa/sites/default/files/NTP_En.pdf
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Chatham House, July 2017
Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabia’s Social Contract
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2017-07-20-vision-2030-saudi-kinninmont.pdf
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Saudi Aramco 2030: Post IPO challenges
Authors: Ramady, Mohamed
Examines Aramco's early history and analyzes how lessons from the past may influence the company's future
Assesses Aramco's current overarching national and international mandates as the primary agent of change for Saudi Arabia's economic development
Explores the privatization models adopted by national oil companies in both developing and developed economies to assess if similar models can be applied or adapted  for Aramco
Investigates how a planned Aramco IPO  can take place and the critical issues faced in successfully  realizing such an objective
eBook $79.00
ISBN 978-3-319-67750-7
This book discusses the strategic shift in ownership of Aramco, the Saudi  Arabian Oil Company, and its potential impact on Aramco's role in a post- privatized world. Scheduled to become an IPO in 2018, Aramco is on the verge of becoming the largest IPO on the market. As the world’s largest oil and gas company, Aramco’s impending privatization has important implications for the world’s petroleum market. This book, therefore, undertakes an analysis of Aramco, examining its history, its current role in Saudi Arabia’s economy, and its future role as an IPO. The chapters highlight the likely outcomes for Aramco in proceeding with its planned IPO and privatization, as well as the various policy options and models available to it by drawing on the privatization of other national oil companies  in Norway , Russia, Brazil, and China. The book also explores the complexities that will be involved in transforming Saudi Aramco to a privatized company—albeit with significant government oversight and control—and addresses  key questions  on the issues  likely to be  faced, such as IPO pricing, the listing, domain, and market capacity, and potential stakeholders. As such, this book will be of interest to academic researchers studying energy economics, energy policy, and the political economy of the Middle East, as well as private sector decision makers in energy related fields, international organizations, international oil companies, energy commodity traders, and public sector energy policy makers with interest in Saudi Arabia and Aramco’s IPO.
About the authors
Dr. Mohamed Ramady is a former Visiting Associate Professor in the Faculty of Finance and Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. He obtained both his BA and his PhD from Leicester University, UK, and a Postgraduate Degree from the University of Glasgow. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers (UK). He specializes on regional economics, energy and the Saudi economy, as well as on money and banking. Among his publications is The Saudi Arabian Economy: Policies, Achievements and Challenges
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